Tuesday, July 29, 2008

LAW 17: Keep Others In Suspended Terror: Cultivate An Air Of Unpredictability

“Unpredictability is the greatest asset a leader can have.”
–-Richard M. Nixon1

Humans like to live with the familiar, with patterns in their daily activities. When this concept of familiarity is disturbed, they are thrown into confusion and fear.
Cultivating an air of unpredictability instills confusion, tension, and fear on the people around you. They wouldn’t know how you would react or what you would do; they’ll be unnerved and literally be on their toes, unable to do nothing else but speculate and wait anxiously on how you will act and what you will do. In the process, your presence gradually becomes a threat.
In 1798, French Vice-Admiral François-Paul Brueys D'Aigalliers did not expect the Battle of the Nile to start on the night of August 1. Brueys, who studied the strategies and tactics of British Rear-Admiral Horatio Nelson, did not worry about an ambush; he and his men unhurriedly got ready for the battle for the next morning whilst Nelson gathered his most trusted men and “let each act to his own initiative.”2 The British ambushed the French. This caught the French fleet off-guard, resulting to their inability to act immediately. Thus, because of the unpredictable act the British executed, the French were defeated immediately and the latter conquered victoriously.
Besides being a “weapon of terror” (Greene), unpredictability also has a way of stirring conversation among the people around you, with you, yourself, as the topic. No matter if these conversations may be true or not, the fact remains that you are in their center of interest and attention. You become the “talk of the town”. But sometimes, unpredictability can also be the end of your power. Inconsistencies in your behavior and actions may trigger people to think you have a “serious psychic problem” (Greene), or worse, just plain indecisive, concluding you unfit to be a leader.
After all that, I want to ask you a question: even if one has accomplished a lot by being unpredictable, isn’t it still hard to follow that leader or person of power with this attribute, let alone trust him or her? Is it worth it? Think about it.

1http://www.civic-strategies.com/resources/quotes.html
2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Nile


Kira Gochuico
HI 18 N

18 comments:

Dexter Tanengsy said...

I believe it doesn't really matter if someone is predictable or unpredictable. History would tell us that there were many unpredictable leaders who were well loved. What matters though is the character of that person. If someone is known to have a good heart, even if he might be the most unpredictable person, people will know that they are in good hands. But unless you want to suffocate others in your search for power, then yes, I agree, this tactic works perfectly.

Dexter Tanengsy, Hi18-N

camille martinez said...

I actually think that being unpredictable is a good thing. This is as long as unpredictability achieves its goals.

I do believe that being unpredictable is different from being fickle-minded. An unpredictable leader can be good if he initiates change and breaks from the oppression of society's norms. Fickle-mindedness in a leader indicates a lack of priorities.

camille martinez said...

Change, as Kira said, is one the greatest fears of the individual. His whole world is thrown out of balance and it will be difficult if he isn't quick to adapt.

It will be difficult for some people to follow an unpredictable leader. There will always be people who are not open to big or speedy changes that affect them immensely.

Marcy Leonora V. Pilar said...

I think that aside from having the right type of character and mind, having timing is also essential. A man in a quest to stamp himself on the hearts and minds of others (a leader, perhaps) should know when shifting/changing is and is not yet ripe. I mean, seeing that change is the only permanent thing in this finite world, we might as well make the most out of it. Julius Caesar, for example, adpated the ways of an actor in re-creating himself in order to ensure that he had the upper hand in timing.
I think that in order to "lessen" the threatening air of this law, we have to acknowledge that change is ubiquitous. This, in turn, will help us open our minds to the great range of possibilities (some common, some shocking) that are upon us. Though we may not always be victorious in doing so, it helps to break away from the limits brought about by narrow mindedness.
Change, for me, is good. It may make matters difficult for us sometimes, but it takes the monotony out of life. Learn to live a little by acknowledging change, and the many options that accompany it.:)

Marcy Leonora V. Pilar said...

In addition, it is only through change that we get to learn new ways, ideas, lessons, etc. If we keep doing the same thing over and over again, how are we ever going to progress as individuals and as a nation?

MiRz Reyes said...

I think that the unpredictability of a leader could only be effective towards his enemies; but as to his followers, it would be hard for them to deal with such leader. Perhaps the leader should at least be partially predictable when it comes to his followers. Besides, his followers don't have psychic powers for them to foresee what his future actions will be.

Revealing to the followers a little bit of the leader's attitude, I think, will not produce harm. It is just an assurance that the leader is still in the right disposition to rule.


Miriam R. Reyes
Hi18-O

janna_amigo said...

perhaps in the battlefield, unpredictability is a good thing but i don't think it should be an attribute of a good leader. if you keep doing the unexpected, even your most loyal of followers will begin to doubt you or worse, think you're nuts. also i don't believe that you should be the "talk of the town;" you shouldn't attract too much attention to yourself because you'll find it harder to subtly carry out your plans. unpredictability is good but only to a certain extent.

Unknown said...

Just as some animes would show, the only way you can beat an exact copy of yourself in a swordfight is to be unpredictable; do something that you don’t normally do. However this is true only on the battlefield.
Unpredictability for leaders might be a bad thing since your followers would have a hard time…following the leader. You don’t want your followers to be in a constant state of confusion.

Marvin Velasco said...

I agree with the above comments. Being unpredictable is a great tactic for an individual, but it's troublesome for a leader and the subordinates. When you're a leader, you have to make your intentions known at all times to your followers. There's nothing worse than a dysfunctional core due to a misleading foundation created by the leader.

Marvin Velasco
Hi18 N

Eric Andres said...

I agree with Camille Martinez' comment: being unpredictable is a good thing provided that it achieves its goals. I read somewhere of high-profile people not taking the same route everyday and not using the same cars everyday to avoid being ambushed. Well, this can be a great way to outwit your enemies, but, however, your being unpredictable can end up detrimental to you as it can seriously mess up your lifestyle. With ambiguity comes confusion...

Eric Andres
HI 18 Section N

Anonymous said...

very cool! just make sure the unpredictability is a good one. It shows a sign of change. Change requires power. And most people fear change. Very strong law. as proof, the leaders with this characteristic changed history.

I hope I have the power to change the world.

Don Faylon
Hi18N

kirag. said...

My thoughts exactly, Janna. :D

Sometimes, leaders who are notorious for being unpredictable can be really hard to trust.

In addition to that, it's also "suspended terror" for both the one cultivating the air of unpredictability and for the people around him or her. It's "suspended terror" for the one doing it because he himself or she herself doesn't know what would happen or result to from his or her actions.

Kira Gochuico
HI 18 N

kirag. said...

To Camille

It's true that unpredictability can be a good thing but the question also lies in what one wants to show or prove by being unpredictable. The reason why one is being unpredictable may be good or bad, and the answer to that question is how we can assess if unpredictability is really a good thing.

Kira Gochuico
HI 18 N

kirag. said...

To Marcy

It's true that change is vital to the progress of each individual and of a nation, but one must ask if unpredictability must always be present in a leader to carry out change in a group of people or a particular nation.

The question one must ask is: Is unpredictability vital in a leader's character just to commit change?

Kira Gochuico
HI 18 N

Anonymous said...

i think that just because a leader has gained success due to his creative unpredictable ways doesn't mean that you can't completely trust that person. After all, an unpredictable character doesn't necessarily mean an untrustworthy one.

if you've been a long follower of that leader, then you can also have comfort in the thought that he is predictably unpredictable. if you believe that you have served that leader well, then you should have no doubts that he will preserve you.

monica ang, L

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rpr rao said...

Unpredictability is not the only quality of leader, it is one among the many of his own.